Clinical and Dermoscopic Determinants of Surgical Decision-Making in Skin Cancer Screening: A Retrospective Analysis.
Background and Objectives: Deciding which pigmented or non-pigmented skin lesions require surgical excision, as opposed to continued observation, is a common challenge in everyday dermatologic practice. Although dermoscopy is well established as a tool that improves melanoma detection accuracy compared with naked-eye examination, real-world evidence on how demographic profile, patient history, and dermoscopic impression jointly influence the surgical decision remains limited. This study examined the clinical and dermoscopic factors associated with a positive surgical decision (PSD) in a large single-centre screening cohort. Materials and Methods: This retrospective cross-sectional analysis included 643 consecutive patients (415 female (64.5%), 228 male (35.5%); mean age 51.3 ± 16.8 years) undergoing dermoscopic skin cancer screening. Data recorded included family history of melanoma (FHM), personal history of skin cancer (HSC), childhood sunburn (CS), clinically atypical lesions (CAL), suspicion of basal/squamous cell carcinoma (BCC/SCC), nevus count (NC, 0-4), and the surgical decision (PSD). Free-text dermoscopic descriptions were grouped into seven diagnostic categories. Group comparisons used the Mann-Whitney U, χ2, and Fisher's exact tests; predictors of PSD were characterised using multivariable logistic regression (with Hosmer-Lemeshow and Nagelkerke R2 statistics), multiple correspondence analysis (MCA), Gower-distance k-medoids clustering, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, including the area under the curve (AUC). Missing NC data (13.2%) were assessed using Little's test for data missing completely at random (MCAR test). Results: A positive surgical decision was recorded in 133/643 patients (20.7%) and was significantly more common in men than women (25.9% vs. 17.9%; p = 0.017; corresponding to an odds ratio (OR) of 1.61). In multivariable analysis, suspicion of BCC/SCC (OR = 24.7, 95% confidence interval (CI): 9.26-66.0) and clinically atypical lesions (OR = 5.53, 95% CI 3.50-8.74) were the strongest independent predictors of PSD (Nagelkerke R2 = 0.31; Hosmer-Lemeshow p = 0.977), far outweighing family or personal history. A significant interaction between childhood sunburn and nevus count (OR = 1.39, 95% CI 1.16-1.66; p < 0.001) predicted clinical atypia. Missing NC data were consistent with a completely random pattern (Little's χ2 = 2.80, df = 2, p = 0.247). Dermoscopic impression showed strong discriminative value for PSD: "no concern" had the highest negative predictive value (NPV = 0.927; AUC = 0.762), while "atypical lesion" combined high specificity (0.916) and positive predictive value (0.632; AUC = 0.736). On average, 4.8 patients were examined for every surgical referral generated (a screening-to-referral ratio, not a number needed to screen for a histologically confirmed cancer). Conclusions: Surgical decision-making in this cohort was driven almost exclusively by the dermoscopic impression-suspected BCC/SCC and clinical atypia-rather than by family or personal oncological history, while male sex was independently associated with a higher surgical rate. These findings support dermoscopy-led triage protocols and highlight the potential value of standardised risk stratification to optimise referral pathways in routine skin cancer screening.
Authors
Chwojnicki Chwojnicki, Makuch Makuch, Adamska Adamska, Ćwietlicka Ćwietlicka, Hrynczyszyn Hrynczyszyn, BuĆawa BuĆawa, Piesch Piesch, PolaĆski PolaĆski, TaĆski TaĆski
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