Global Burden, Temporal Trends, and Long-Term Projections of Mental Disorders Among Women of Childbearing Age: A GBD 2021 Analysis Using BAPC Modeling.
Mental disorders represent a major public health challenge among women of childbearing age (WCBA, 15-49 years), yet comprehensive evidence on long-term trends, socioeconomic disparities, and future trajectories remains limited. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021, this study aimed to quantify the burden of mental disorders among WCBA from 1990 to 2021 and to project future trends.
Incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of mental disorders among WCBA were obtained from GBD 2021. Temporal trends from 1990 to 2021 were assessed using joinpoint regression analysis. Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) modeling was applied to forecast the burden of ten major mental disorders for the next 15 years. Analyses were stratified by age group, geographic region, country, and socio-demographic index (SDI).
In 2021, mental disorders imposed a substantial global burden among WCBA, with depressive and anxiety disorders accounting for the majority of cases. Marked geographic and socioeconomic disparities were observed, with consistently higher burdens in high-SDI regions. Age-specific patterns differed by disorder, with anxiety disorders peaking in younger women and depressive disorders peaking in midlife. Trend analyses revealed a decline in burden indicators between 2005 and 2010, followed by a pronounced rebound after 2019. Projections indicate that the incidence and prevalence of depressive and anxiety disorders will continue to rise, whereas the burden of bipolar disorder and schizophrenia is expected to stabilize or decline.
The burden of mental disorders among WCBA shows substantial inequalities across regions and SDI levels and is projected to increase further for common disorders. These findings highlight the need for forward-looking, equity-oriented mental health policies, with targeted prevention, early intervention, and resource allocation strategies tailored to high-risk populations and regions.
Incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of mental disorders among WCBA were obtained from GBD 2021. Temporal trends from 1990 to 2021 were assessed using joinpoint regression analysis. Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) modeling was applied to forecast the burden of ten major mental disorders for the next 15 years. Analyses were stratified by age group, geographic region, country, and socio-demographic index (SDI).
In 2021, mental disorders imposed a substantial global burden among WCBA, with depressive and anxiety disorders accounting for the majority of cases. Marked geographic and socioeconomic disparities were observed, with consistently higher burdens in high-SDI regions. Age-specific patterns differed by disorder, with anxiety disorders peaking in younger women and depressive disorders peaking in midlife. Trend analyses revealed a decline in burden indicators between 2005 and 2010, followed by a pronounced rebound after 2019. Projections indicate that the incidence and prevalence of depressive and anxiety disorders will continue to rise, whereas the burden of bipolar disorder and schizophrenia is expected to stabilize or decline.
The burden of mental disorders among WCBA shows substantial inequalities across regions and SDI levels and is projected to increase further for common disorders. These findings highlight the need for forward-looking, equity-oriented mental health policies, with targeted prevention, early intervention, and resource allocation strategies tailored to high-risk populations and regions.
Authors
Pan Pan, Pan Pan, Pan Pan, Chen Chen, Qin Qin, Jie Jie, Ma Ma, Situ Situ, Wang Wang, Song Song
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