High predicted cardiac event risk in youth with obesity and type 2 diabetes: a pooled cohort analysis.
Despite the growing burden of youth-onset type 2 diabetes (Y-T2D), the long-term risk for fatal/non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Y-T2D compared to peers is unknown. The International Childhood Cardiovascular Cohort (i3C) combined-risk z-score is a novel tool for predicting 35-year risk of adult CVD events. In Y-T2D compared to peers (Lean and overweight/obesity [OW/OB]), we estimated predicted CVD events and evaluated the relationship of the i3C z-score with risk-enhancing factors.
In a pooled cohort cross-sectional analysis of 1547 adolescents and young adults (AYA) aged 10-25 years [627 Lean, 803 OW/OB, 117 Y-T2D], i3C combined-risk z-scores and estimated hazard ratios (HR) were obtained from the published i3C equation using risk z-scores of systolic blood pressure, body mass index (BMI), smoking history, total cholesterol, and triglycerides. ANCOVA regression models were used: 1) to compare i3C z-scores and HR in AYA with Y-T2D, OW/OB and Lean peers, and 2) to measure associations between i3C estimated HR and risk-enhancing factors including apolipoprotein B (ApoB), total low density lipoprotein particle number (LDL-P), and high sensitivity C reactive protein (hsCRP). Models were adjusted for diagnosis group, race, study center and multiple comparisons with Bonferroni.
Y-T2D had the highest i3C z-score (Y-T2D: 1.23 [1.10, 1.36] vs. OW/OB: 0.84 [0.80, 0.88] vs. Lean: -0.11 [-0.15, -0.06], mean[95%CI]) and estimated HR for predicted CVD events (Y-T2D: 4.25 [3.65-4.86] vs. OW/OB: 3.04 [2.85-3.22] vs. Lean: 0.95 [0.74-1.17], HR [95% CI]). Risk-enhancing factors increased the HR for predicted CVD risk by 0.3 for each 10 mg/dL increase in ApoB, 0.1 for each 100 nmol/L increase in LDL-P, and 0.16 for each 2 mg/L increase in hsCRP, all P < 0.001.
Y-T2D had an estimated 4.5- and 1.4-times higher risk for predicted CVD events compared to Lean and OW/OB peers, respectively. Lipoprotein and inflammatory risk-enhancing factors may help stratify and guide primary prevention strategies in high-risk AYA.
In a pooled cohort cross-sectional analysis of 1547 adolescents and young adults (AYA) aged 10-25 years [627 Lean, 803 OW/OB, 117 Y-T2D], i3C combined-risk z-scores and estimated hazard ratios (HR) were obtained from the published i3C equation using risk z-scores of systolic blood pressure, body mass index (BMI), smoking history, total cholesterol, and triglycerides. ANCOVA regression models were used: 1) to compare i3C z-scores and HR in AYA with Y-T2D, OW/OB and Lean peers, and 2) to measure associations between i3C estimated HR and risk-enhancing factors including apolipoprotein B (ApoB), total low density lipoprotein particle number (LDL-P), and high sensitivity C reactive protein (hsCRP). Models were adjusted for diagnosis group, race, study center and multiple comparisons with Bonferroni.
Y-T2D had the highest i3C z-score (Y-T2D: 1.23 [1.10, 1.36] vs. OW/OB: 0.84 [0.80, 0.88] vs. Lean: -0.11 [-0.15, -0.06], mean[95%CI]) and estimated HR for predicted CVD events (Y-T2D: 4.25 [3.65-4.86] vs. OW/OB: 3.04 [2.85-3.22] vs. Lean: 0.95 [0.74-1.17], HR [95% CI]). Risk-enhancing factors increased the HR for predicted CVD risk by 0.3 for each 10 mg/dL increase in ApoB, 0.1 for each 100 nmol/L increase in LDL-P, and 0.16 for each 2 mg/L increase in hsCRP, all P < 0.001.
Y-T2D had an estimated 4.5- and 1.4-times higher risk for predicted CVD events compared to Lean and OW/OB peers, respectively. Lipoprotein and inflammatory risk-enhancing factors may help stratify and guide primary prevention strategies in high-risk AYA.
Authors
Malandrino Malandrino, Davis Davis, Glaros Glaros, Kacker Kacker, Cantor Cantor, Macheret Macheret, Thota Thota, Mabundo Mabundo, Sampson Sampson, Remaley Remaley, Lightbourne Lightbourne, Magge Magge, Yanovski Yanovski, Chung Chung
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