[Mortality trend of myocardial infarction and its age-period-cohort effects in permanent residents in Hebei Province, 2014-2022].
Objective: To understand incidence trend of myocardial infarction (MI) mortality in permanent residents in Hebei Province from 2014 to 2022, and provide references for the development of MI prevention strategies. Methods: The data of 531 200 MI deaths were collected from the mortality surveillance database of Hebei Provincial CDC during 2014-2022. Excel 2019 and Joinpoint 5.3.0 were used to calculate the crude mortality rate of MI. The data from the 7th National Population Census were used as the standard, the age-standardized mortality rate of MI rates was calculated. The annual percent change and average annual percent change (AAPC) were used to describe the change trends. The age-period-cohort model was used to evaluate the age, period, and cohort effects on mortality changes. Results: From 2014 to 2022, the crude mortality rate of MI was 79.15/100 000, and the age-standardized mortality rate was 86.22/100 000 in permanent residents in Hebei. The crude mortality rates of MI in the total population, men, and women all showed upward trends (AAPC=13.28%, 13.19%, 13.61%, all P<0.001), and the age-standardized mortality rates of MI also showed upward trend (AAPC=7.37%, 11.32%, 13.41%, all P<0.05). In the permanent residents, the mortality rates of MI in age groups 0-14 and 15-64 years showed upward trends in Hebei from 2014 to 2022 (AAPC=35.56%, 9.75%, both P<0.05). During 2014-2017, the MI mortality rate in age group ≥65 years showed an upward trend (AAPC=26.41%, P=0.011). In terms of age effect, the age effect coefficients were 270.60, 119.14, and 226.40 times higher in age group 77-79 years than in age group 20-22 years in men, women and total population, respectively. In terms of period effect, the MI death risk were 1.78, 1.63, and 1.78 times higher during 2020-2022 than those during 2014-2016 in men, women and total population respectively. In terms of cohort effect, the MI death risk were 375.83, 183.30, and 298.38 times higher in those born during 1999-2001 than in those born during 1936-1938 in men, women and total population respectively. Conclusions: The MI mortality rate in permanent residents in Hebei showed an upward trend, indicating that the prevention and control of MI is still challenging. The mortality rate in men was generally higher than that in women. It is necessary to conduct early detection and treatment of MI, further improve the treatment level, take targeted measures to improve people's health.