Multinational validation of the PREVENT and SCORE2 cardiovascular risk equations across 6.4 million individuals.
The American Heart Association's PREVENT equations estimate risk of total cardiovascular disease (CVD), atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD), and heart failure (HF) to guide lipid and blood pressure-lowering therapy in people ages 30 to 79 years in the United States. The SCORE2 risk algorithm is used to estimate CVD risk for similar purposes in people ages 40 and older in Europe. Neither set of equations has been comprehensively validated in global observational cohorts and randomized trials. Here, in 44 observational cohorts and 18 randomized trials, we assessed discrimination and calibration of the two risk algorithms across geographical regions (North America, Europe, Asia/other, multi-region trials). We also created scaling factors for risk prediction over 1-9 years using the PREVENT equations, enabling shorter-term risk prediction for research purposes or to facilitate clinical trial enrolment. Over 5.1 years of mean follow-up, 293,737 PREVENT total CVD events (fatal and non-fatal ASCVD or HF) and 258,086 SCORE2 CVD events (myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death) were observed among 6,422,714 and 5,437,384 individuals, respectively. Despite differences in CVD outcome definitions, target populations and predictor variables, overall discrimination and calibration were similar for both equations, with generally good performance across regions, including in multi-regional randomized trials. These findings lend support for adoption of PREVENT or SCORE2 for cardiovascular risk stratification across diverse settings.
Authors
Neuen Neuen, Major Major, Grams Grams, Sang Sang, Coresh Coresh, Ballew Ballew, Surapaneni Surapaneni, de Pinho de Pinho, Arnlov Arnlov, Arnott Arnott, Bell Bell, Berry Berry, Brenner Brenner, Ciemins Ciemins, Chang Chang, Cushman Cushman, de Lemos de Lemos, Diaz-Tocados Diaz-Tocados, Farjat Farjat, Fletcher Fletcher, Gansevoort Gansevoort, Heerspink Heerspink, Herrington Herrington, Hong Hong, Horwitz Horwitz, Hwang Hwang, Jassal Jassal, Kalra Kalra, Katz Katz, Khan Khan, Kovesdy Kovesdy, Kronenberg Kronenberg, Lees Lees, Lloyd-Jones Lloyd-Jones, Mill Mill, Naimark Naimark, Ndumele Ndumele, Polkinghorne Polkinghorne, Psaty Psaty, Schloemer Schloemer, Shlipak Shlipak, Shrestha Shrestha, Song Song, Staplin Staplin, Steubl Steubl, Vart Vart, Visseren Visseren, Woodward Woodward, Yamagishi Yamagishi, Young Young, Sabanayagam Sabanayagam, Valdivielso Valdivielso
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