National and regional projections of gynaecological cancers in Aotearoa New Zealand: a projection model to 2045 highlighting an opportunity for collective action.
Gynaecological cancers are an increasing concern in Aotearoa New Zealand, with rapid growth in uterine cancer incidence in recent years. Understanding future incidence patterns is essential for planning and service delivery at a sub-national level.
Cancer registry data (2001-2022) were combined with population projections to estimate incidence of gynaecological cancers to 2045. Projections were generated using age-period-cohort Poisson regression models, with non-parametric bootstrapping to quantify uncertainty.
Annual gynaecological cancer cases are projected to increase 82% by 2045, reaching 2,497 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2,263-2,774) compared with 1,375 in 2020-2022. The overall age-standardised rate is projected to rise 21% from 36.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] 35.5-37.8) to 44.2 per 100,000 (95% UI 38.9-50.3). Uterine cancer contributes the largest increase, more than doubling from 717 to 1,506 cases annually (110%). Among Māori, cases rise 132% from 214 to 497 per year (95% UI 449-553); for Pacific women, they rise 137% from 165 to 391 (95% UI 340-449). Uterine cancer age-standardised rates are projected to increase from 27.3 to 39.6 per 100,000 for Māori, and from 74.3 to 97.5 for Pacific women. Regional variation is expected: the Northern Region is projected to have the largest absolute increase (+506 cases, 527 to 1,033) and the largest percentage increase (96%).
Gynaecological cancer incidence in Aotearoa New Zealand is projected to rise substantially over the next 20 years, driven by demographic change and increasing incidence of uterine cancer likely associated with risk factors such as excess body weight and diabetes. Findings highlight the need to prioritise prevention, proactive service planning and equity-focussed early detection.
Cancer registry data (2001-2022) were combined with population projections to estimate incidence of gynaecological cancers to 2045. Projections were generated using age-period-cohort Poisson regression models, with non-parametric bootstrapping to quantify uncertainty.
Annual gynaecological cancer cases are projected to increase 82% by 2045, reaching 2,497 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2,263-2,774) compared with 1,375 in 2020-2022. The overall age-standardised rate is projected to rise 21% from 36.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] 35.5-37.8) to 44.2 per 100,000 (95% UI 38.9-50.3). Uterine cancer contributes the largest increase, more than doubling from 717 to 1,506 cases annually (110%). Among Māori, cases rise 132% from 214 to 497 per year (95% UI 449-553); for Pacific women, they rise 137% from 165 to 391 (95% UI 340-449). Uterine cancer age-standardised rates are projected to increase from 27.3 to 39.6 per 100,000 for Māori, and from 74.3 to 97.5 for Pacific women. Regional variation is expected: the Northern Region is projected to have the largest absolute increase (+506 cases, 527 to 1,033) and the largest percentage increase (96%).
Gynaecological cancer incidence in Aotearoa New Zealand is projected to rise substantially over the next 20 years, driven by demographic change and increasing incidence of uterine cancer likely associated with risk factors such as excess body weight and diabetes. Findings highlight the need to prioritise prevention, proactive service planning and equity-focussed early detection.
Authors
Walsh Walsh, Bartholomew Bartholomew, McPherson McPherson, Simcock Simcock, Ponnampalam Ponnampalam
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