Structural imaging predictors of ketamine response in treatment-resistant depression: a machine learning approach.

Ketamine has demonstrated rapid antidepressant efficacy in treatment-resistant depression (TRD), but clinical decision-making is challenging due to variability in individual response. Current trial-and-error prescribing practices may expose patients to ineffective treatment and avoidable adverse effects, underscoring the need for reliable predictive tools to optimize treatment selection and support personalized, evidence-based care. We developed a machine-learning model (support vector classifier) to predict antidepressant response to ketamine using pre-treatment structural MRI data. The model was trained on 99 adults with TRD given a single intravenous ketamine infusion (0.5 mg/kg). Clinical response was defined as a ≥50% reduction in MADRS scores 24 h post-infusion. Internal validation used repeated nested cross-validation, and generalizability was tested in two independent ketamine-treated cohorts (n = 51) and a saline-treated control group (n = 49). Among ketamine-treated participants, 52 (52.5%) responded to treatment. The model achieved a balanced accuracy of 72.2% (sensitivity = 72.3%, specificity = 73.1%, AUC = 0.72) in the discovery sample and 60.0% (p = 0.01, AUC = 0.65) in external validation. Greater gray matter volume in frontal regions predicted response, whereas greater cerebellar volume predicted non-response. Performance dropped to chance in the saline cohort (BAC = 41.1%, AUC = 0.45), supporting pharmacologic specificity. These findings present the first machine-learning model for the prediction of ketamine response in TRD using structural neuroimaging and highlight its potential utility for stratified treatment planning and biomarker-informed interventions while providing mechanistic insight into neuroanatomical predictors of antidepressant response.
Mental Health
Care/Management

Authors

Bryant Bryant, Alexander Alexander, Mena Mena, Jacob Jacob, Jubeir Jubeir, Li Li, Neukam Neukam, Morris Morris, Murrough Murrough, Price Price, Koutsouleris Koutsouleris, Mehta Mehta, Juruena Juruena, Coutts Coutts, Lalousis Lalousis
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